|
Washington State
Employment Security Department
Labor Market and Economic Analysis
April 2009
|
Southwest Washington + PDX
Labor Market News
Volume 2009, Number 3
|
|
|
Scott Bailey, Regional Economist
805 Broadway, Suite 412, Vancouver WA 98660-
Voice: (360) 906-2768
|
Monthly Review
|
April 2009 Unemployment Rates
|
|
|
Apr. 2009
|
Mar.
2009
|
Apr.
2008
|
|
Seasonally Adjusted:
|
|
U.S.
|
8.9
|
8.5
|
5.0
|
|
Washington
|
9.1
|
9.1
|
4.9
|
|
Oregon
|
12.0
|
11.9
|
5.6
|
|
Portland Metro (PDX)
|
12.1
|
11.0
|
4.9
|
|
Unadjusted:
|
|
U.S.
|
8.6
|
9.0
|
4.8
|
|
Washington
|
9.0
|
9.6
|
4.5
|
|
Oregon
|
12.1
|
12.7
|
5.3
|
|
PDX+Cowlitz+Salem
|
11.7
|
11.8
|
4.9
|
|
PDX + Cowlitz
|
11.7
|
11.8
|
4.8
|
|
PDX
|
11.6
|
11.7
|
4.7
|
|
Clark
|
13.4
|
13.4
|
5.8
|
|
Cowlitz
|
15.4
|
14.6
|
7.1
|
|
Wahkiakum
|
15.5
|
15.6
|
6.4
|
|
Clackamas
|
11.0
|
11.1
|
4.4
|
|
Columbia
|
14.6
|
14.7
|
5.6
|
|
Multnomah
|
11.2
|
11.3
|
4.6
|
|
Washington
|
10.0
|
10.2
|
4.2
|
|
Yamhill
|
13.0
|
13.9
|
5.1
|
|
Salem MSA
|
11.8
|
12.4
|
5.3
|
PDX+Cowlitz Update
“PDX” refers to the Portland metropolitan area, which includes Clackamas, Clark, Columbia, Multnomah, Skamania, Washington, and Yamhill counties. “PDX + Cowlitz” is the region of focus for this newsletter.
Unemployment
Joblessness worsened again this month. The Portland metro area’s seasonally-adjusted rate rose more than a point to 12.1 percent in April. Nominal rates at the county level dropped by a tenth of a point, more or less, with Yamhill (a sharp drop) and Cowlitz (a sharp rise) being the exceptions.
It’s been said before but it bears repeating—the unemployment rate is a fine statistic at the national level, a decent measure at the state level, and less than precise at the county level. Recent newspaper articles have focused on the mystery of why Oregon’s labor force is growing during a recession. The same can be asked for Clark (+4 percent growth over the year) and Cowlitz (+3 percent) as well—the numbers don’t square with reality. Perhaps the best approach when looking at the unemployment data is to focus on the big picture (unemployment is way up) and not rely too much on specific numbers.
Nonfarm employment
Cowlitz+PDX lost 6,700 jobs in March and another 6,200 in April on a seasonally-adjusted basis, marking the 15th straight month of employment declines.[1] Over the past twelve months, the region has lost 50,900 jobs, or 4.7 percent. It would have been ever worse except that hiring for the 2010 Census began in earnest—federal employment rose by 700 jobs in April, with more hires to come.
In comparison, nationally employment has fallen by 5.2 million jobs (-3.8 percent). Employment in the State of Washington has dropped by 116,100 jobs (-3.9 percent), while in Oregon it has declined by 95,900 (-5.5 percent).
During the 2001 recession, the region lost 55,000 jobs. It could well breach that level in May.
County-level employment
In this month’s race to the bottom, Clark (-2.7 percent) had the smallest employment decline in the region over the past twelve months, while Cowlitz was higher at -3.2 percent[2]. Losses on the Oregon side ranged from 3.9 percent in Multnomah to -9.1 percent in Columbia. The relative positions of each county will change from month to month, however.
Industry trends
Three sectors added jobs in April: education & health services (+300), leisure & hospitality (+500), and government (+300). Health care is slowing down, and did not change over the month.
Caution should be used when comparing the region with individual counties, since county-level estimates are done independently of the metro-area total estimate, and so the counties don’t sum to the total.
Warmer weather usually brings substantial seasonal hiring in construction, but not this year, when contractors cut payrolls by 700 jobs. Every county except Cowlitz has witnessed double-digit declines over the past year, with the region as a whole off 15 percent. The housing market has not bottomed out. Permits for 1,130 housing units were issued in the first four months of 2009—compared with 2,828 in 2008 and 5,414 in 2007. The same is true for Clark and Cowlitz. If extrapolated out through the end of the year, permits would be even lower than in 1982-84. Housing prices continued to slide in March: the seasonally-adjusted Case-Shiller Housing Price Index for the metro area dropped 2.5 percent, the biggest monthly decline so far, and was down 19.2 percent from its peak two years ago.
Manufacturing keeps getting worse, with another 1,800 jobs disappearing in April (including 100 Cowlitz). The total loss over the year now comes to 11,900, or 9 percent. The five larger counties are all off by 7 to 8 percent, while Yamhill is down 15 percent and Columbia 30 percent. Most of the cuts have come in durable goods such as electronics (-2,100, including 400 in Clark), transportation equipment (-1,400, including 200 in Clark), machinery (-900, including -100 in Clark), and wood products (-900, including -100 in Clark and -200 in Cowlitz). Paper products are off by 700 jobs, including a loss of 300 in Cowlitz.
Trade & transportation was unchanged in April, and the over-the-year loss remained at 10,900 or 5 percent. Wholesale is off 5 percent, retail (which added 400 jobs in April) is down 4 percent, while transportation (which lost 400 jobs in April) has dropped by 9 percent. Pink slips have been more plentiful on the Portland side.
Information services continued its descent, shedding 300 jobs over the month and 1, 600 jobs (6 percent) over the year. Almost all of the pink slips have been issued on the Oregon side. Financial services inched down 100 jobs over the month, and 2,800 jobs (-4 percent) over the year. Again, almost all the damage was on the Oregon side, although losses in Clark County have been revised downward to -500 over the year.
Professional services employment usually goes up in April with the culmination of the tax season. Not this year. The industry lost 300 jobs, and almost doubled its over-the-year deficit, which now is estimated at 2,300 jobs. Clark County is down 200 over the year, while Cowlitz has seen no change. The hemorrhaging in business services continued as the industry bled another 400 jobs in April, bringing the over-the-year loss up to 9.500 jobs (-16 percent, largest of any industry). Business services employment is off by 300 jobs in Clark and 100 in Cowlitz.
Education and health services employment rose by 300 jobs in April. Private education added 100 jobs, while health care & social assistance chipped in 200. The year-over-year gain continues to slide—it’s down to 2,300 jobs, or 1.9 percent, versus 5,000 jobs only a few months ago. Clark County added 100 jobs over the month, and is still up 5 percent over the year. Cowlitz was unchanged in April, and up 100 over the year.
Last April, leisure & hospitality payrolls expanded by 1,600 jobs in the region; this April, a mere 500 spots were filled. Employment in PDX+Cowlitz is now down 5,300 jobs over the year (-5 percent). Clark County has been revised downward, and is now estimated at a loss of 400 jobs over the year (despite 200 seasonal hires in April), while Cowlitz employment is flat. The tri-county area has taken most of the hit—Clackamas (-6 percent), Washington (-6 percent), Multnomah (-5 percent), but Clark is catching up (-3 percent).
Finally, the region added 300 government jobs in April, but the devil is in the details. Federal payrolls jumped by 700 jobs due to the first wave of 2010 Census hiring. K-12 staffing fell by 600 jobs. That left the public sector at +2,400 over the year, with almost half of the additions at the federal level, and the other half evenly split between K-12 and other local government entities. Clark County was showing a fairly robust over the year increase of 800 jobs, including 700 in K-12, while Cowlitz was down 100 due to a drop in public education.
[1] Officially, July seasonally-adjusted jobs went up, but only because seasonal layoffs in public education had an unusual pattern this past summer. A more appropriate adjustment would have eliminated the July gain and moderated the large October loss.
[2] Both Clark and Cowlitz nonfarm data have been revised lower since the preliminary April numbers were release two weeks ago. New, fully-revised data will be released June 16.